Practical course
How to perform technical analysis
A repeatable process from an empty chart to a contextualised, risk-defined plan.
Step 1
Define the asset, horizon and timeframe
Timeframe changes the question. Weekly charts reveal cycles, daily charts refine levels and intraday charts only belong in genuinely short plans.
Use top-down analysis: market, weekly asset, then daily. Prefer logarithmic scale for long periods because equal distances represent equal percentage moves.
Procedure
- 1Confirm ticker, venue, currency and adjustments.
- 2Write down the intended horizon.
- 3Classify the weekly structure.
- 4Move to daily without contradicting the higher frame.
Example · Six-month horizon
ABC keeps higher weekly lows above 72 but falls from 86 to 78 daily. It remains a pullback until 72 breaks; evaluate it on daily closes, not intraday noise.
Step 2
Read structure before indicators
Structure uses meaningful swings, not every candle. Uptrends have higher highs and lows; downtrends have lower highs and lows; overlap signals a range or transition.
A trend line needs two anchors and gains its first real validation on a third touch. A parallel channel estimates movement, never dictates it.
Procedure
- 1Hide indicators.
- 2Mark the latest three clear swings.
- 3Label HH/HL or LH/LL.
- 4Mark the level that changes structure.
Example · Structure change
ABC rises 72→84, pulls back to 77 and reaches 91. The uptrend remains intact above 77. A close below 77 ends the bullish sequence but does not automatically establish a downtrend.
Step 3
Mark support and resistance as zones
A level is an area where decisions clustered. Build it from bodies, closes, repeated wicks, gaps and volume; higher timeframes carry more weight.
A valid break needs a close outside and subsequent acceptance. An immediate return is a failed break. Role reversal must be observed, not assumed.
Procedure
- 1Mark weekly zones first.
- 2Keep no more than three active areas.
- 3Define the confirming close.
- 4Write down invalidation.
Example · 98–100 resistance
After three rejections, ABC closes at 102 on 1.8× average volume, retests 100 quietly and rebounds. Break–retest–continuation is stronger evidence than one wick above 100.
Step 4
Check volume and liquidity
Volume measures participation, not intent. Every trade has a buyer and seller; a bar cannot prove institutional accumulation.
Use relative and dollar volume. A broad break on twice normal volume differs from a thin holiday move. Spread and depth determine executability.
Procedure
- 1Calculate a 20-session average.
- 2Compare the current bar.
- 3Locate the close within its range.
- 4Check spread and dollar volume.
Example · Participated breakout
ABC trades 3.2m shares versus a 1.4m average: 2.29 relative volume. It closes in the top 10% of its range with a 0.08% spread—evidence of acceptance, not a guarantee.
Step 5
Add one indicator per question
Indicators transform price or volume and are secondary evidence. Use one per function: moving average for trend, RSI for momentum and ATR for expected range.
RSI above 70 describes strength, not an automatic sell. Divergence needs a structural price break to confirm.
Procedure
- 1Ask a question first.
- 2Keep parameters stable.
- 3Interpret the market regime.
- 4Require price confirmation.
Example · RSI is not automatic
ABC reaches 110 with RSI 78 and 116 with RSI 69. The bearish divergence is only confirmed when the latest 106 swing low breaks.
Step 6
Build confluence and scenarios
Confluence combines independent evidence: structure, level, volume and momentum. Three close-derived indicators are not three independent proofs.
Build the opposing case first. A sound reading states what is missing and declines a trade when evidence is unclear.
Procedure
- 1Score structure and level.
- 2Add participation and momentum.
- 3Write the opposing case.
- 4Require two independent forms of evidence.
Example · Confluent pullback
ABC returns to weekly support at 80 and its latest higher low while RSI reclaims 50 and sell volume fades. A close below 78 invalidates both structure and zone.
Step 7
Define entry, invalidation and size
Professional analysis ends in conditions, not an arrow. Entry activates the thesis, invalidation proves it wrong and target is a plausible area. Position size converts stop distance into portfolio risk.
Reward/risk does not predict win rate. Track expectancy, costs and slippage.
Procedure
- 1Set entry and invalidation.
- 2Calculate risk per share.
- 3Set maximum portfolio loss.
- 4Derive size and check liquidity.
- 5Write target and management.
Example · Coherent size
Entry 82, invalidation 78 means 4 risk per share. A €20,000 portfolio risking 0.5% allows 25 shares. A 92 target offers 250 potential reward versus 100 risk before costs.
The rule that prevents false confidence
Technical analysis describes probabilities from past prices; it does not know the next move.